Rainy with a risk of pests: tackling unpredictable weather to mitigate pest risks

Rodents and rain: an unexpected pair with surprising connections. Here’s how. 

Several factors, such as temperature, air pressure, humidity, cloudiness, and wind, all contribute to weather uncertainty. These variables can change rapidly and unexpectedly.

Due to climate change, the Earth is now about 33.98°F warmer than in the late 1800s. 

Studies worldwide show us that heat, the intensity of rainfall, and drought frequency are all changing. The average temperature profile and distribution have shifted, and today's heatwaves are outside the range of normalcy relative to the heatwaves of 40 years ago.

Climate does change naturally, but human actions are acting as a steroid and speeding up the process. Over the last decade or so, global warming has accelerated significantly, and clear trends demonstrate that the pace of warming is ramping up.

It’s raining rats and mice: unpredictable weather and rising pest risks 

The impact of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, or forest fires, can be devastating, causing significant economic costs and irreversible changes to ecosystems. As climate change persists, pest risks increase, leading to more rodents harming business reputations, spreading diseases, and contaminating food.

We can’t go a day without a pest control story in the mainstream news, and that’s because pest pressures continue to rise. Weather and pest risks are closely linked, and we see real-world examples of pest activity affected by weather every day. 

Our parent company, Rentokil Initial, has reported that fly infestation levels in Milan and Turin have increased by 20.2% year-over-year. The drought occurred later in the year, which caused an initial spike in August 2022. However, the infestation levels have since dropped, coinciding with the seasonally decreased fly population.¹

In this case, the initial spike in August could be linked to favorable weather conditions that support fly reproduction and population growth. The decrease in the number of flies may be due to the arrival of colder or less favorable weather conditions, leading to a natural decline in the fly population. This leads us to believe that the fly population will be significantly higher than in previous years due to the base population/seasonal starting point being higher.

Rentokil has seen a +8.8% YOY increase in fly infestation levels in the following regions: Fort Myers, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Miami, and Jacksonville.²

Seasonally, we generally see a drop-off in fly activity from November to February in many temperate regions, such as North America and Europe. This seasonal drop-off is a natural pattern where the fly population tends to reduce during colder months or unfavorable conditions.

To tackle this problem of weather-increasing pest risks, businesses must develop strategies to mitigate the risks posed by inclement weather and increased pest risks, and the pest industry needs to be proactive to stay one step ahead of pests. 

Exploring weather prediction's potential to forecast and mitigate pest activity

Climate change, extreme weather events, and their effect on pest risks require businesses to be proactive to tackle the unpredictability of weather and protect their premises.

Data mapping could help predict weather changes, emerging patterns, and where pests will appear, allowing for more preventative pest control practices, targeted treatments, and reduced chemical usage. So, what are the possibilities if we could use this data to predict pest infestations based on the weather forecast, and what would be the outcome?

We could identify favorable conditions for pest activity by analyzing weather patterns and historical data. Early detection of potential infestations allows for proactive measures to be taken, such as targeted pest control strategies, before the infestation becomes severe. Also, with predictive insights, pest management efforts could be aligned with the expected infestation periods. This enables pest control professionals to allocate resources and implement control measures at the right time, maximizing their effectiveness. 

Data-driven predictions allow for pest control interventions to be more precise and targeted. This reduces the usage of pesticides, as treatments are used only when needed, minimizing environmental impact and promoting sustainable pest control. As a result, businesses can rely on effective pest control strategies that align with their sustainability goals.

Beyond promoting sustainability, data-driven pest control could bring substantial cost savings to businesses. Early interventions can be implemented by predicting pest infestations based on weather data and other relevant factors. As a result, widespread infestations can be prevented, reducing the need for extensive and costly damage-repair treatments.

Data-driven predictions allow businesses to take a proactive approach, tackling pest issues before they spiral out of control, leading to significant cost savings in the long run.

As the experts in pest control, we’re already using data to keep us one step ahead of pests and are working toward these possibilities. A well-rounded look at weather and environmental conditions allows us to predict a pest response more precisely than just looking at temperature or water levels. 

We use ecological modeling to help us. Ecological modeling is the scientific process of constructing and using mathematical and computational models to understand and predict the behavior of an ecological system. In our case, pests are that ecosystem. 

Every time our devices record a pest sighting, we have a stronger ecological model that we can use to anticipate tomorrow’s pest control needs. In fact, between our front-line colleagues and the deployed devices worldwide, Rentokil receives nine million data points daily. 

Our colleagues deliver observations as our first line of sight to pest defense, and we’re working with Google and NGIS to understand how geography, city boundaries, weather, and daily data collection can predict pest pressure across the world and improve our services. An ecological model only gets stronger with more data added, and with new data added every day, our ecological model is getting stronger and stronger.

Staying ahead of pests

As technology advances, the future of pest control holds even more promising opportunities for delivering superior services while prioritizing environmental responsibility and product efficacy. By harnessing weather mapping, we can identify conditions before they lead to infestations, bringing customers a wealth of new benefits. 

To learn more about the latest innovations in rodent control, click here. 

_{1 Data generated by internal service calls to Rentokil Initial in Italy and Florida from June 2021 to November 2022.
2 Data generated by internal service calls to Rentokil Initial in Florida from September 2021 to March 2023.}